Impressive prediction record from thejetsblog.

[ret2ski]

Week Seven Prediction

By Andrew Weiss
Oct 28, 2010

This week’s a squeaker!

The points are starting to level off and prediction is getting better. We predicted 44 points and the Broncos and Jets scored 44 points. We’ll have to wait another week or two to see if this holds steady and the system can be relied on for over/unders now that there’s seven weeks of data. Just barely beat the spread last game. We predicted a five point spread and it was actually four.

Here’s what the numbers say for Sunday at 1 vs the Packers. The Jets have exceeded opponents defenses on average by 4%. Based on Packer opponent numbers and pts. allowed, then, we can predict that the Jets will score 23 points this week. As for the Packers, they’ve overperformed their opponents defenses by 21%. Based on Jets’ opponents numbers and pts. allowed, then, we’ve got the Packers scoring 19 points. A squeaker. The final: 23-19 Jets. Sorry to say, the Jets are not predicted to cover the six. Take the Packers to cover, but lose a close one.

Remember these are based on weightings of average performance of opponents which ought to improve as the year goes on.

Last game’s prediction: Jets 25/Broncos 19. Actual score: Jets 24/Broncos 20, with a little late help from a late flag. Since the Jets covered the +3.5, the prediction is upheld. Season record against the spread: 4-0.

[twoink]

I'm particularly impressed with their ability to ignore everything but a simple stat in determining the final score. Focussing on the Jets, for example, one might want to consider factors, in both directions, such as (1) Sanchez having performed relatively poorly his last two (or at least 1.5) game, (2) supposed return to full strength of the best CB in the league, (3) better integration of Santonio Homes into the offense, (4) further recuperation of Calvin Pace, etc. Curious that none of that figures in.

[AFL12]

Yeah, Its a power point prediction, but football is a matchup sport

[WestSideJohnny]

Originally Posted by twoink

I'm particularly impressed with their ability to ignore everything but a simple stat in determining the final score. Focussing on the Jets, for example, one might want to consider factors, in both directions, such as (1) Sanchez having performed relatively poorly his last two (or at least 1.5) game, (2) supposed return to full strength of the best CB in the league, (3) better integration of Santonio Homes into the offense, (4) further recuperation of Calvin Pace, etc. Curious that none of that figures in.

but its not a simple one. Its more a trend as baseline kinda thingy but I'll take 23 19 wins any day.

[twoink]

Originally Posted by WestSideJohnny

but its not a simple one. Its more a trend as baseline kinda thingy but I'll take 23 19 wins any day.

I was hoping for a blow-out, but I'll sign up now for any win (and no injuries).

[Dirty Sanchez]

hey, look at the sf giants. win close all reg season, then roll out the blow-out in the big show. they call it "torture."