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Thread: The Scout's Notebook

  1. #1

    The Scout's Notebook

    THE SCOUT'S NOTEBOOK

    The Lay of the Land

    by Colin Lindsay
    GBN Editor and Publisher
    April 8, 2013



    Looking for a little clarity on how the 2013 draft is evolving. Youíve probably come to the wrong place! Indeed, the more one tries to figure it out, the less one feels one knows. There is, for example, no consensus #1 prospect like Andrew Luck or Cam Newton the past couple of drafts. Kansas City still looks prepared to take Texas A&M OT Luke Joeckel with this yearís top pick, although its hardly a lock; however, it also appears that other teams would take different players if they had the #1 selection. As well, even with just 17 days to go until the actual draft, there still appears to be a significant amount of movement on draft boards around the league that may very well continue right up until draft day.

    Whoís hot: Arguably the hottest player in the 2013 draft class looks to be Oregon DE/LB Dion Jordan. Until recently, NFL teams werenít quite sure the 6-6, 248-pound former Duck was a 4-3 DE or a 3-4 edge rusher, but it appears that most of the teamís with top picks in this yearís opening round have concluded he has elite potential as either. There are still concerns about a bad shoulder and the fact that Jordan was never super productive Oregon, but it appears he has joined the top row of prospects for this yearís draft which also likely includes Joeckel, Central Michigan OT Eric Fisher and Florida DT Sharrif Floyd. At the same time, one continues to hear that just about every team in the league thinks that West Virginia WR Tavon Austin is the most dynamic playmaker in this yearís draft. Because he isnít very big at barely 5-9, 174, Austin isnít a lock to go in this yearís top 10 picks, but the sense is that teams with picks 6 through 10 are definitely giving him a long look.

    At the same time, it appears that blue/red chip pot could be shrinking as the draft approaches. In particular, it is very possible that WRs Cordarelle Patterson of Tennessee and Calís Keenan Allen, along with CBs Xavier Rhodes of Florida State and Washingtonís Desmond Trufant, who have all been considered mid-first round type prospects could be slipping. Patterson, for example, has uncommon physical skills, but isnít a polished route-runner or receiver, while Allen, who was never a burner to begin with, will only try and work out for pro teams later this week after missing the combine and his pro day while rehabbing from a knee injury. Meanwhile, Rhodes has impressive size, but may be strictly limited to press coverage schemes as he isnít all that quick or agile. For his part, scouts love Trufantís feisty attitude and terrific recovery speed, but was way too inconsistent on tape last fall. The bottom is hardly going to fall out on any one of these guys, however, no one should be surprised if one or all slip into the bottom third of this yearís opening round.

    The jury is also still deliberating about Florida State DE Bjoern Werner. A top 5 prospect heading into the combine, Wernerís status appears to have been in something of a free fall after he tested poorly in Indianapolis, especially given that he lacks ideal size and length for a prototype NFL DE. Bottom line is that Werner could be a real wild card on April 25th who could go literally go anywhere from just outside the top 10 to deep into the opening round. There are also some very curious vibes regarding Alabama OG Chance Warmack, who a lot of analysts have rated one of the top prospects period this year. However, Warmack isnít getting much love from teams with top 10 picks this year. Indeed, while the rest of players considered to be top 10 prospects have been crisscrossing the country dropping in on teams with early selections, the only invites Warmack has apparently received to date are from Dallas and the Giants who pick 18th and 19th respectively this April. Of course, the danger for a guy like Warmack has always been that OG just isnít a valued first-round position; plus heís just not that athletic; indeed, we arenít sure if anyone who runs a 5.5 40 can be a top 10 prospect just on principle. Time will tell.

    At the same time, just about every year, a player or two not on the first-round radar pops up in the middle of the opening round. Last year, for example, DEs Bruce Irvin and Shea McClellin, neither of who was considered to be more than a fringe first-round candidate, were selected 15th and 19th overall respectively last April by Seattle and Chicago. Of course, NFL teams donít make their picks off the consensus draft-guru grades, but use their own value board. And thereís just no accounting for taste! Guys not generally considered to be first-round characters this year, but who could pop up in the middle part include Florida State Menelik Watson, arguably the next best LT prospect this year after the big three of Joeckel, Fisher and Johnson, Boise State CB Jamar Taylor, Tennessee WR Justin Hunter and Florida State DE Tank Carradine.

  2. #2
    Well that would be great news for Patterson to fall to us.
    I would prefer him over Allen as he has no injury concerns. Also, with Jennings, we can afford to ake the prospect with upside there. He have the proven guy already in Jennings and Patterson is that Homerun type.
    Allen provides us a very good WR, but what is his upside? Would prefer Patterson if he falls.

    Going to be a great draft. Really excited to have 2 first rd picks and see what we can come up with. I am expecting that Spielman maneuvers a little but not a lot. Really need to add depth to the roster and top talent at many positions.

  3. #3
    I don't think we draft a WR in the first. I think it will be a LB and DT, or trade up for somebody like Star Lutulele (sp). Round two will be interesting. I could see us taking a CB in the second, which would leave us really stretching ourselves for a WR. We'll draft one, maybe two, but I will be surprised if we go WR in the first three rounds.

    I've been wrong before but call this Hyperintuition :lolflag:.

  4. #4
    I think our draft will be value based. If Patterson is there.... I think we take him. Nice to have a Jennings and Patterson on the field.
    I also see adding another WR later.

    Value based DT at 23 is probably likely. If a Lotulelei or Richardson somehow fall? we have to nab them, maybe even Short as well.

  5. #5
    Just a day after we noted in the Scoutís Notebook the somewhat curious situation of Alabama OG Chance Warmack who many consider to be one of the very best prospects in this yearís draft, but who to date hadnít received an invitation to visit any teams with a top 10 pick in this monthís draft. And as if right on cue Detroit made us out to be liars of sorts when it leaked out that the Lions, who have the 5th pick this year, were hosting Warmack this week. Certainly, Warmack would qualify as a top 5 prospect, but there are doubts that the Lions would actually pull the trigger on the big íBama guard the early in the draft with some talented players at impact positions still on the board. In fact, the smart money around the league is that the Lions would only select Warmack if they moved down in the opening round. That may dovetail with one of the draftís other hot stories this week in that Miami is seriously considering moving up in order to acquire one of this yearís big three OTs: Luke Joeckel of Texas &M, Central Michiganís Eric Fisher or Lane Johnson of Oklahoma. Given that Joeckel and Fisher are expected to be gone within the first 3-4 picks later this month, Detroit would appear to be a logical trade-up possibility for the Dolphins, who have extra picks in both the second and third rounds to offer as compensation. Interesting that the Lions will also reportedly bring West Virginia WR Tavon Austin, who most teams consider to be the most dynamic playmaker in this yearís draft, in for a visit either later this week or next week. However, as has been noted, Austin isnít all that big and likely would be considered something of a reach with the 5th pick so might be another player the Lions might be checking out if they were to move down. There would still likely be plenty of perms and combs, though, before any deal is consummated. For example, would the Lions be willing to move down if Alabama CB Dee Milliner was still there at #5. It is also possible that Miami could have some company in the pursuit of Johnson. In particular, both San Diego, which picks one spot ahead of the Dolphins at #11, and Arizona, which has the 7th selection, also desperately need a LT and could be tempted to move up. Neither has the trade ammunition that the Dolphins have, although the Cardinals would not have to move up as far. In fact, if multiple teams are interested in the 3rd OT, then picks as high as Jacksonville at #2, Oakland at #3 and Philadelphia at #4 could also come into play from a trade-talk perspective. Meanwhile, the other player that could attract some trade-up talk is Alabama CB Dee Milliner; its possible, for example, that a team like Cleveland might try and jump ahead of Philadelphia and Detroit to get the former Tide corner. Stay tuned Ö Meanwhile, speaking of former Alabama stars, several prominent draft analysts including Mel Kiper and Chris Mortensen are reporting that former Tide RT D.J. Fluker may be making a late move up draft boards across the NFL. Indeed, there are reports that the Dolphins are considering Fluker as a fall-back option with the 12th pick if they arenít able to work a deal to move up and get one of the top three OT prospects.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by IIsweet View Post
    I think our draft will be value based. If Patterson is there.... I think we take him. Nice to have a Jennings and Patterson on the field.
    I also see adding another WR later.

    Value based DT at 23 is probably likely. If a Lotulelei or Richardson somehow fall? we have to nab them, maybe even Short as well.
    Agree, if Patterson would fall then I'd take him as well. But I don't think that will happen. Allen ran a 4.75 in his workout yesterday, that I'm sure knocks him out of the 1st round, even though he still isn't 100%.

    Best thing for us, assuming Patterson isn't there, is we can execute at least one trade down, and then take a WR early in the 2nd round. For me ideally it would be Hopkins, and then hope Hunter falls to us later in the 2nd round. Or vice-versa...but still like the idea of getting one or both of these guys.

  7. #7
    [QUOTE=RedMcCombs;415365]Best thing for us, assuming Patterson isn't there, is we can execute at least one trade down, and then take a WR early in the 2nd round. For me ideally it would be Hopkins, and then hope Hunter falls to us later in the 2nd round. Or vice-versa...but still like the idea of getting one or both of these guys.[/QUOTE]

    Absolutely it could be a very fun draft if that happens.

  8. #8
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    WOW!!! Allen ran a 4.75? That definately hurts his stock. Question now is with this being a deep WR class how far has his stock fallen? Could he fall all the way to pick #52? Could be a injury risk/reward pick there if he does.

    I will be shocked if Patterson falls all the way to #23, but if he does taking him there is a no-brainer.
    All he does is catch TOUCHDOWNS!!!!!!!!!!

  9. #9
    There are conflicting reports where negotiations stand between Tampa Bay and the New York Jets in a proposed trade in which the Buccaneers would get All-Pro CB Darelle Revis for the Jets. There have been reports, for example, that Tampa Bay was only willing to part with future picks for Revis, who finished the year on IR with a torn ACL, while the Jets are holding out for the Buccaneersí first-round pick this year, the 13th overall. However, there are other reports which indicate that the Buccaneers have already offered their #1 pick, along with a mid-rounder and a late rounder for Revis, but that the Jets, who really wonít feel any real pressure to consummate the deal until closer to the draft, are holding out for a little more. Whatever, it sounds like something will get down on, or before the 25th. The Jets want to move Revis and have no other takers, while the Buccaneers really want Revis; indeed, there are other reports that the Buccaneers have already agreed on the parameters of a new contract with Revis.


    Of course, if the Jets, who already have the 9th pick overall, were able to acquire the 13th pick, they would be in a position to move further up into the top 10 were they so inclined. And if who they are bringing in for pre-draft visits is any indication, the Jets may be thinking just that. Indeed, the Jets have either visited with recently, or will have in for visits, West Virginia QB Geno Smith, along with Alabama CB Dee Milliner and Oregon DE/LB Dion Jordan, all three of whom are expected to be off the board before the 9th pick. Smith, in particular, would make an intriguing target as incumbent starting QB Mark Sanchez has pretty much worn out his welcome with the teamís management, not to mention their fan base, while both Milliner and Jordan would address huge needs for the Jets. If Smith was indeed the target, the Jets could probably package the 9th and 13th picks to get all the way up to the second pick if Jacksonville didnít want him for themselves. Meanwhile, the Jets could probably get to the 4th or 5th pick by packaging their current second rounder (#39th overall) with the 9th pick.

    The Jets could also conceivably trade all the way up to the #1 pick overall with Kansas City were they so inclined, although it would cost them at least the 9th, 13th pick and 39th picks, as well as a pick in 2014, although that would probably be a little steep. Certainly, the indications are that Kansas City is still holding out hope that someone makes them an offer for this yearís top pick. And the Chiefs are in the rather unique position of possibly being willing to drop out of the top 5 as they are already pretty well covered at the position theyíll likely address with the top pick if they stay at #1. The Chiefs are expected to take either LT Luke Joeckel of Texas A&M or Central Michiganís Eric Fisher, but they already have a very serviceable LT in Brandon Albert whom Kansas City franchised earlier this year. If the Chiefs did move down they could get Albert signed long-term and address another position. On the other hand, if the Chiefs do stay at #1 and select either Joeckel or Fisher, it is very possible they could move Albert, who has no secret of the fact that he does not want to change positions, almost immediately afterward. Indeed, the Chiefs have to want to try and get back into the second-round after trading their #2 pick to San Francisco for QB Alex Smith.

    This and that: Speaking of West Virginiaís Smith, he has a private workout scheduled with Cleveland in his home town of Miami on the weekend. Because teams donít usually waste their time working out players they are not interested in ten days before the draft suggests the Browns have a real interest in Smith. However, Cleveland, which has the 6th pick overall and has stated publicly more than once that theyíll keep looking for an elite QB until they find one, may have to move up to get Smith as there is no guarantee that heíll still be on the board when they get on the clock. The Browns, though, have also checked out all the other top QB prospects in this yearís draft, so have other options at the position Ö Nice to see former Notre Dame MLB Manti Teío get some love from NFL teams as heíll be visiting at least three teams over the next few days. Teío, who had been considered to be a mid-first round prospect before running afoul of the fake dead girlfriend thing - although the fact that he looked lost at sea in the national championship game against Alabama and then tested poorly at the combine didnít help - has visits scheduled with Detroit, Miami and San Diego. However, none of those teams - or anyone else for that matter - is expected to take Teío in the opening round, although he should start to get some serious looks around the middle of the second round Ö

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Carter80 View Post
    WOW!!! Allen ran a 4.75? That definately hurts his stock. Question now is with this being a deep WR class how far has his stock fallen? Could he fall all the way to pick #52? Could be a injury risk/reward pick there if he does.

    I will be shocked if Patterson falls all the way to #23, but if he does taking him there is a no-brainer.
    If Allen did fall all the way to #52, could be tempting. I guess the question is, the guy was never that fast before he was hurt. Is his speed loss temporary, or permanent...

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