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Thread: FOUR comp picks?

  1. #1
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    FOUR comp picks?

    Where the Hell have these picks been through the years?

    First round: No. 30 overall
    Second round: No. 60 overall
    Third round: No. 92 overall
    Fourth round: No. 127 overall
    Fourth round: No. 133 overall
    Fifth round: No. 163 overall
    Sixth round: No. 198 overall
    Seventh round: No. 236 overall
    Seventh round: No. 243 overall
    Seventh round: No. 244 overall
    Seventh round: No. 249 overall

    Well, well,...the Falcons finally get some comp picks after never having them before. One 4th round and THREE 7th round picks.

    It's that "secret formula" ya see.

    What the freaking secret formula is favoritism and when the Falcons start getting love from the ivory towers in NYC it means a back stabbing setup or sure enough *allowing* this franchise to become elite.

  2. #2
    In recent years, Atlanta has had compensatory picks in the following rounds:

    2012: 7th
    2010: 3rd and a 5th
    2008: 3rd
    2007: 4th and a 7th

  3. #3
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    What happened in 2009 and 2011?

    This has gone on before 2007. You cannot deny they say there's a formula noone knows about. *They* admit it.

    Yeah, the Patriots have benfitted from comp picks more than most franchises. So have the Steelers. I know from memory,...don't need no GD website, I've lived this.

    This is GREAT! You Niners fans have been down in the hole for some years but now it appears the team is stacked and ready for a SB run this Fall and Winter. It's great to have you all back. Some of us older Falcons fans remember the Montana days well. Hell,...I bet I know more about the 1980's Niners than you do.

    And we'll be meeting this season again.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Penumbra View Post
    What happened in 2009 and 2011?

    This has gone on before 2007. You cannot deny they say there's a formula noone knows about. *They* admit it.

    Yeah, the Patriots have benfitted from comp picks more than most franchises. So have the Steelers. I know from memory,...don't need no GD website, I've lived this.

    This is GREAT! You Niners fans have been down in the hole for some years but now it appears the team is stacked and ready for a SB run this Fall and Winter. It's great to have you all back. Some of us older Falcons fans remember the Montana days well. Hell,...I bet I know more about the 1980's Niners than you do.

    And we'll be meeting this season again.
    No one disputes that the formula is not publicly known. With that said, it's major points are publicly known: net free agent loss/gain, contractual value of free agent losses/gains, playing time/awards earned by free agent losses/gains, et cetera.

    So, as an example, a dedicated fan examined picks that had been handed out in previous years to determine an approximate formula capable of projecting compensatory picks with roughly 85-90% accuracy in a given year. You can look at his work here:

    http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/

    He's posted on various NFL forums for the better part of a decade. The lockout dissuaded him from projecting compensatory picks in recent years, but others have used his work to do the same. So, in January of this year, these projections were put out by a fan site:

    http://bloggingthebeast.com/2013/01/...k-projections/

    Comparing them to the actual picks that were just released highlights how easy it is for teams to figure out whether they can expect picks in a given year:

    http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/ey...2013-nfl-draft

    I appreciate the kind wishes. The Falcons have risen again, too, with a talented core. I look forward to a renewed rivalry.

  5. #5
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    That Adam guy needs to get a life or make money at his talent. Very nice work. Kempski made me laugh,..."As you might imagine, the research involved in this kind of undertaking has a high degree of difficulty, so if you perceive any errors, please point them out in the comment section and we’ll take a closer look." Don't think anyone could be so humble in the NFL World but after what I saw and what Jimmy wrote?,...researched? Very nice.

    In Brinson's piece it's interesting that a SB winning team would receive 4 comp picks. It's also noticable the Steelers and Patriots received just one comp pick between the two when in the past they'd be awarded with handsful of comp picks. There seems to be a trend and only time will show what it is.

    Oh yeah,...once I HATED the Niners all to be damned. In the 80's and 90's they didn't want to *just* beat you,...they wanted to embarrass you! I've heard Niners players from the past admit this. I felt bad for the Niners when Singeltary was there. That was a lost team for a couple years. But, as much as I hated those teams during the dynasty years it was always fun knowing you'd watch top quality NFL football in the playoffs. To this day I believe and KNOW Joe Montana was and is the finest Pro QB ever to walk this Earth. Hell,...I saw him do it up front and personal In Atlanta and on TV.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Penumbra View Post
    In Brinson's piece it's interesting that a SB winning team would receive 4 comp picks. It's also noticable the Steelers and Patriots received just one comp pick between the two when in the past they'd be awarded with handsful of comp picks. There seems to be a trend and only time will show what it is.
    A team's relative success or lack thereof isn't taken into account. The compensatory picks handed out this March are a reflection of the prior year's free agent period.

    If I'm not mistaken, Baltimore has the highest running total of awarded compensatory picks since the picks started being awarded in 1994 -- despite the fact that Baltimore's total doesn't start until 1996 when the franchise relocated and became the Ravens. The reason is that they know how to take advantage of free agency to maximize their loss:gain ratio. Their qualifying free agent net from last offseason:

    Lost: Ben Grubbs (5 yr $36 million), Jarret Johnson (4 yr $19 million), Cory Redding (3 yr $10.5 million), Tom Zbikowski (3 yr $5.5 million), Haruki Nakamura (3 yr $4.8 million), Brandon McKinney (2 yr $2 million)

    Gained: Corey Graham (2 yr $3.7 million)

    A net loss of five qualifying free agents meant that the Ravens were eligible for the maximum number of compensatory picks (four). The dollar value of the lost contracts is the primary weighting factor that determined which round those picks would be awarded in.

    Baltimore, knowing how the formula works, is on track to have a similar number of compensatory picks awarded next year.

    Lost: Paul Kruger (5 yrs $41 M), Dannell Ellerbe (5 yrs $35 M), Cary Williams (3 yrs $17 M), Ed Reed (3 yrs $15 M)

    Gained: No qualifying free agents signed yet; the team has only signed two players that were cut by other teams (Marcus Spears and Chris Canty) that do not count for compensatory pick purposes. If Baltimore holds par, we would expect them to end up with four compensatory picks next year (4, 4, 4, 5 if I'm not mistaken).

    New England didn't qualify for any 2013 compensatory picks based on a net free agent gain in 2012. The team lost four free agents, but signed a bunch: DL Jonathan Fanene, WR Brandon Lloyd, WR Donte' Stallworth, WR Anthony Gonzalez, TE Daniel Fells, DL Trevor Scott, OG Robert Gallery, CB/S Will Allen, FB Spencer Larsen, FB Tony Fiametta, CB Marquice Cole, S Steve Gregory, LB Bobby Carpenter. More than four qualified for the formula (e.g., not previously cut, non-veteran-minimum salary, et cetera). Ergo, no picks for New England this year.

    Pittsburgh had a similar situation, with only one qualifying free agent loss (CB William Gay). That single loss meant that Pittsburgh could only be awarded one pick.

  7. #7
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    Well one thing is certain,...regardless the success, failure of a team, free agents lost, or anything else,...you're gonna get what they give you.

    It would be fascinating to go back and look at the comp picks that have made it bigtime in the NFL. That would of course take some time and the average fan most likely doesn't care.

    Yes, when a team signs free agents it offsets comp picks. That secret formula at work.

    You amaze me NL with the stats. There's one stat that would be interesting to know. Which team has won more regular season games in the last 5 years. Reason I ask this because it's so difficult in the NFL to be a perennial winner and that maybe some franchises are not marketed properly by ESPN/NFLN, etc. But it goes back to the old Vikings, the Kelly Bills, the Manning Colts other than the one SB winning season and the other teams that won regular but never won it all. I dunno, maybe I'm saying some of the best teams in NFL history never won it all.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Penumbra View Post
    Well one thing is certain,...regardless the success, failure of a team, free agents lost, or anything else,...you're gonna get what they give you.

    It would be fascinating to go back and look at the comp picks that have made it bigtime in the NFL. That would of course take some time and the average fan most likely doesn't care.

    Yes, when a team signs free agents it offsets comp picks. That secret formula at work.

    You amaze me NL with the stats. There's one stat that would be interesting to know. Which team has won more regular season games in the last 5 years. Reason I ask this because it's so difficult in the NFL to be a perennial winner and that maybe some franchises are not marketed properly by ESPN/NFLN, etc. But it goes back to the old Vikings, the Kelly Bills, the Manning Colts other than the one SB winning season and the other teams that won regular but never won it all. I dunno, maybe I'm saying some of the best teams in NFL history never won it all.
    Over the past five years -- the Matt Ryan era -- the highest cumulative winning percentage in regular season games is as follows:

    1. New England - 60 W, 20 L - .750
    2. Atlanta - 56 W, 24 L - .700
    3. Baltimore - 54 W, 26 L - .675
    4. Green Bay - 53 W, 27 L - .633
    4. Pittsburgh - 53 W, 27 L - .633

    The entire list is here.

    If you're interested in just home games:

    1. New England - 34 W, 6 L - .850
    2. Atlanta - 33 W, 7 L - .825
    2. Baltimore - 33 W, 7 L - .825
    4. Green Bay - 32 W, 8 L - .800
    5. New Orleans - 29 W, 11 L - .725
    5. Pittsburgh - 29 W, 11 L - .725

    Road games:

    1. New England - 26 W, 14 L - .650
    2. Pittsburgh - 24 W, 16 L - .600
    3. Atlanta - 23 W, 17 L - .575
    3. New Orleans - 23 W, 17 L - .575
    5. New York Giants - 22 W, 18 L - .550

    As far as the best team in a given year or period of years not winning, that happens quite often across all sports. The shorter a season, the more likely it is to occur. I recommend this article ( http://www.footballoutsiders.com/sta...sons-revisited ) if you're interested in the subject.

  9. #9
    If you're curious, compensatory picks over the years (not including this year):



    Picks marked with an asterisk are supplemental compensatory picks. In a given year, if there aren't enough picks to give out for free agent losses, supplemental picks are given out based on record (lowest to highest).

  10. #10
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    This site has two incredible Niners fans. Phred does the draft stuff and you NL are just amazing with yours.

    It's nearly April and I can't wait for the battles between the NFC West and South.

    It's about bed time so I'll come back and study your posts further. That second one is fascinating.

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