NinersLacking
10-17-2007, 04:32 PM
Pennington must make better decisions
By KC Joyner
ESPN
Chad Pennington is on the hot seat, largely due to his performance the past two games. In Pennington's first three starts, his passer rating was a stellar 105.8. In his last two starts, that figure has dropped to 51.6.
What is the cause for the decline? Many pundits are claiming the problem is Pennington's inability to throw the ball vertically. The evidence they point to is Pennington's meager 28.2 passer rating on deep throws (passes 21-plus yards downfield) this season. He also has attempted zero bomb passes.
But those numbers don't tell the entire story of Pennington's woes.
Deep and bomb passes are only two segments of the vertical passing game. Medium passes are also considered vertical passes and typically account for 60-70 percent of a team's vertical throws. Pennington is doing a fantastic job on medium throws, with a 103.9 passer rating at that depth level this season.
Furthermore, take a look at Pennington's depth level metrics in the past two games:
http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/1628/89332728eh2.png (http://imageshack.us)
His medium- and deep-pass numbers are more than adequate, and if the 54 yards he lost on dropped passes was factored back into his passing yardage, his overall medium/deep yards per attempt during this stretch would be 12.6. To put that figure in perspective, consider that Pennington's medium/deep YPA average in 2006 was 10.2 yards.
It is also worth noting Pennington has never been much of a bomb passer. He threw only 20 bomb passes in all of 2006, the third-lowest total among quarterbacks with 16 starts. Only Steve McNair and David Carr threw fewer bomb passes.
Pennington's real issue has nothing to do with arm strength and everything to do with bad decision making. In the past two games, Pennington has made five bad decisions in 63 total dropbacks, for a 7.9 bad decision percentage, more than three times his 2.3 rate in 2006. It is not just the volume of bad decisions -- the variety of bad decisions is just as disturbing.
On two occasions, Pennington stared at his receiver, leading to the defender getting his hands on the ball. On two other passes, Pennington didn't see a defender in the passing lane. The other bad decision came when Pennington fell victim to a defense disguising zone coverage as man coverage.
The staring has been a consistent issue for Pennington. He had eight of these types of mistakes in 2006, but the other two types of bad decisions are quite unlike him.
The numbers indicate a solution to Pennington's recent slump won't come from time spent in the weight room. It will come from time spent in the film room.
YPA (Yards Per Attempt): A quick barometer of a quarterback/wide receiver/tight end's efficiency.
Depth level: A measurement of how far downfield a receiver was on a pass attempt. It is measured from the point at which the receiver touched the ball. Short passes are 1-10 yards downfield, medium 11-19, deep 20-29 and bombs are 30-plus yards downfield.
Bad decisions: A quarterback is charged with a bad decision when he does something with the ball that either leads to, or nearly leads to, a turnover. The most common bad decisions are forcing passes into coverage or staring at receivers.
By KC Joyner
ESPN
Chad Pennington is on the hot seat, largely due to his performance the past two games. In Pennington's first three starts, his passer rating was a stellar 105.8. In his last two starts, that figure has dropped to 51.6.
What is the cause for the decline? Many pundits are claiming the problem is Pennington's inability to throw the ball vertically. The evidence they point to is Pennington's meager 28.2 passer rating on deep throws (passes 21-plus yards downfield) this season. He also has attempted zero bomb passes.
But those numbers don't tell the entire story of Pennington's woes.
Deep and bomb passes are only two segments of the vertical passing game. Medium passes are also considered vertical passes and typically account for 60-70 percent of a team's vertical throws. Pennington is doing a fantastic job on medium throws, with a 103.9 passer rating at that depth level this season.
Furthermore, take a look at Pennington's depth level metrics in the past two games:
http://img149.imageshack.us/img149/1628/89332728eh2.png (http://imageshack.us)
His medium- and deep-pass numbers are more than adequate, and if the 54 yards he lost on dropped passes was factored back into his passing yardage, his overall medium/deep yards per attempt during this stretch would be 12.6. To put that figure in perspective, consider that Pennington's medium/deep YPA average in 2006 was 10.2 yards.
It is also worth noting Pennington has never been much of a bomb passer. He threw only 20 bomb passes in all of 2006, the third-lowest total among quarterbacks with 16 starts. Only Steve McNair and David Carr threw fewer bomb passes.
Pennington's real issue has nothing to do with arm strength and everything to do with bad decision making. In the past two games, Pennington has made five bad decisions in 63 total dropbacks, for a 7.9 bad decision percentage, more than three times his 2.3 rate in 2006. It is not just the volume of bad decisions -- the variety of bad decisions is just as disturbing.
On two occasions, Pennington stared at his receiver, leading to the defender getting his hands on the ball. On two other passes, Pennington didn't see a defender in the passing lane. The other bad decision came when Pennington fell victim to a defense disguising zone coverage as man coverage.
The staring has been a consistent issue for Pennington. He had eight of these types of mistakes in 2006, but the other two types of bad decisions are quite unlike him.
The numbers indicate a solution to Pennington's recent slump won't come from time spent in the weight room. It will come from time spent in the film room.
YPA (Yards Per Attempt): A quick barometer of a quarterback/wide receiver/tight end's efficiency.
Depth level: A measurement of how far downfield a receiver was on a pass attempt. It is measured from the point at which the receiver touched the ball. Short passes are 1-10 yards downfield, medium 11-19, deep 20-29 and bombs are 30-plus yards downfield.
Bad decisions: A quarterback is charged with a bad decision when he does something with the ball that either leads to, or nearly leads to, a turnover. The most common bad decisions are forcing passes into coverage or staring at receivers.